Author Topic: READ The Second After (Read 12151 times)

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #120 on:** September 29, 2011, 10:06:14 AM »

5-10 % = about 30 million people if you go with 10% .
WE all consider the worst case but in reality it might not be worst case. The great depression wasn't worst case , bad for sure but could have been worst. If the police are re enforced by Nationa Guard travel may be possible . One just has no idea.
I find the concept of staying home and protecting it a great concept. But a fire, bombing , chemical spill etc. could make that impossible. Face it anyone with in 25 miles of a train track or water way used to transport freight could be forced out at any moment. Same could be said about an interstate or road leading to a waste site , mine or storage area. Some factories become dangerous if taken off line and not shut down in a safe way.
Maybe realizing there are way more things that could happen than most believe will is the best way to starty to get ready.

reliquary · « **Reply #121 on:** September 29, 2011, 10:32:32 AM »

Excellent threat analysis by nogunshere. The ones who will survive from the cities are the predatory gangs who are ALREADY armed and organized.

One cannot assume that the NG/Reserve or even the active duty units will be benevolent. There's nothing to keep them from becoming "instant warlords", especially with the infiltration of the gangs into uniform that was beginning even back before I retired. For that matter, my company armorer in RVN was a former Hell's Angel who came into the service to see what he could get for his group. Those ideas aren't new.

The books themselves are somewhat hokey, but take a look in William Johnstone's series "Out of the Ashes" and you'll see the same idea about predatory groups. A better one is "Lucifer's Hammer" by Larry Niven & Jerry Pournell. In that one, the military units and the cops go rogue and organize with the gangs.

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #122 on:** September 29, 2011, 10:36:40 AM »

look at history ...........

myronman3 · « **Reply #123 on:** September 29, 2011, 10:56:30 AM »

a county with more deer than people? correct me if i am wrong, but you live in sawyer county....there are way more people than deer..and after what the wolves have done to the deer population there, deer are few and far in between.

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #124 on:** September 29, 2011, 11:05:54 AM »

wolf would make a fine meal

jcn59 · « **Reply #125 on:** September 29, 2011, 12:38:53 PM »

I live in Sawyer county and we register alot of deer here every year. No we don't shoot them all. It just seems like it when you try to find one. Our 2010 census here was about 16,500.

Last season was the first in 15 years that I didn't see a wolf track in the 9 day season in the places where I hunt. After the season I saw tracks of a pair that was working over a cedar swamp. Deer population is still down where I hunt, and I think most of the wolves moved on.

mannyrock · « **Reply #126 on:** September 29, 2011, 05:38:04 PM »

I hear alot and read alot (in novels) about the great fear of motorcycle gangs after a catastrophy. Personally, I think it is way overated. 95% of the people (even gangmembers) I see riding motorcycles are so fat that they couldn't run 100 yards without having a heart attack.

And, they are only "mobile" when they are riding on their huge bikes. I can't think of anything more vulnerable that a guy riding a motorcycle on a road. They ain't riding dirt bikes, they're riding hogs, which all require hard pavement.

I say bring em on. One can only imagine what would happen if a gang of 20 or so, on their oh-so- mean bikes, where hit with an ambush by a few folks with shotguns and carbines on the side of the road. It would be lights out for all of them.

I fear the groups of 2 or 3 young strong cautious ex-military guys, who are travelling on foot at night.

Just my thoughts.

Mannyrock

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #127 on:** September 30, 2011, 02:47:20 AM »

Good point . I agree .
Fact is the moto gang could be 100 or more depending on how close they live to ya. And people will form into groups/gangs for survival. Some will take and kill while others will try to be civil. Some gangs may do both at times.

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #128 on:** September 30, 2011, 02:48:23 AM »

When the fuel and battries run out things will reall go down hill.

mannyrock · « **Reply #129 on:** September 30, 2011, 04:35:55 AM »

Not to mention the fact that once those bikers park their bikes in their little herd, as they love to do, a good man with a .308 rifle, from 400 yards, could quickly destroy every bike.

A gang biker without his bike is just a fat meth addict. They have no survival skills, and can't take to the woods to survive. They may rule supreme in an inner city environment or dense suburbs, but they could not be a viable military force in any semi-open area, including most rural areas.

What are they going to do if their little gang takes fire while they are riding? "Dismount" and "form a skirmish line," leaving one guy to "hold the bikes" ? :-)

Mannyrock

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #130 on:** September 30, 2011, 04:44:31 AM »

There is an old story told about and old farmer and his grand daughter . Seems they were in town when some bikers took a liking to the girl. The old man and girl not wanting any part of it got in his old truch and headed to the farm. The bikers decided to follow, one thing lead to another and they broke windows out the truck, kicked it hit it with chains etc. The old man pulled into his driveway got out the truck with a short bbl mod 97 and killed all 6 bikers . Supposed to have happened in WVa don't know if true or not but its been around for years. Kind backs your thoughts , some peaceful people can turn nasty if forced to. Might see alot of that if times change.

myronman3 · « **Reply #131 on:** September 30, 2011, 05:14:12 PM »

fear bikers? i think that is more a hollyweird thing than actually something people should worry about.
i think the tales of the farmer and his daughter are bull. truck vrs. bikes....bikes lose. he wouldnt need to stop to win that fight; why would he? it sounds like complete hogwash to me.
one thing to think about while having your biker fight fantasy....many bikers are ex military. if things got/get bad, they probably wouldnt be as easy targets as you might think. i am a biker, and trust me, in a "hit the fan" situation, i will not be out joyriding on my scooter. and if i were to decide a raid was necessary to survive, i sure as hell wouldnt be trying to pull a raid on the bike. on foot, from the place you least expect it, when you least expect it. catching people with their pants down is exactly how it is done.

myronman3 · « **Reply #132 on:** September 30, 2011, 05:54:06 PM »

and as far as sawyer county...i have alot of hours there. i worked there for years and ran the backwoods running beaver trapping lines with my buddy. it has been three years now...but back then we would cover miles without cutting deer tracks. after fresh snows, we would cruise the backroads and you couldnt find deer tracks at all....but you could find plenty of wolf tracks. they were everywhere.
one day, we ran across a wolf pup that had mange something fierce. my buddy was going to club it to put it out of it's misery, but i stopped him. i told him to let it spread it. hopefully it did and what you say about the wolves being absent is true. it was sad to see what they did.

jcn59 · « **Reply #133 on:** September 30, 2011, 07:50:57 PM »

I haven't seen a deer in the nine day season for three years. I usually hunt Washburn county in a few spots and sometimes Ashland, Bayfield and Sawyer counties. I like to hunt alone, but the guys who do drives get more and larger deer. Still, I've killed alot of deer in the ninetys and the first few years of this century. By the early 2000s I was seeing very few deer. I think the wolves and hunters like me did a pretty through job of decimating the deer herd. We need to do the same to the wolves. A good number of us are committed to doing what it takes to increase the deer herd. I think the DNR feels the same way about the wolves as most of the hunters do. Every deer season they report wolves killed but I haven't heard of any charges or convictions. I think part of the reason hunters do well on private land is the landowners manage their land for game species, not predators.

jlwilliams · « **Reply #134 on:** October 01, 2011, 03:28:21 AM »

I agree that the Hollywood representation of roving biker gangs post apocolypse is just fantatsy. Real gangs are a real problem nationwide right now. If (when) things deteriorate that will be a bigger problem. Don't let the fact that Hollywood paints an unrealistic picture of gangs lead you to think that because it can't happen that way means it can't happen at all.

I've known some patched bike 'club' members over the years. Some were the stereotypical fat bastard on a Hog, others were significantly harder and smarter. Those 'clubs' exist in part on the dues. Some members are there only to provide money and support for the others. The 'dead weight' members probably don't see themselves that way, but the wolves do. There are plenty of MC members who are not criminals. They just like the association. Then there are some real hard core criminals who use the network of the gangs to operate whatever angle they operate. I imagine that sort of pattern exists across the spectrum of gangs and 'clubs'. (meaning all gangs, not just motorcycle gangs)

Gangs do send young members with no criminal record into the service and have done so for a long time. Some gang members are useless drug adicts who would die without modern technology and convenience. Many others are truly hard people who can and will do whatever it takes to survive and thrive. Underestimate them at your own risk.

no guns here · « **Reply #135 on:** October 01, 2011, 10:58:57 AM »

My point is that the "biker" gangs and the street gangs, drug gangs are the ultimate survivors in an urban setting. They are numerous, organized, they routine commit crimes that the rest of us won't. Basically, in an urban setting where gas is available for the siphoning. A group of scary looking duds on bikes who are armed and who live outside of society's laws on a regular basis become even more dangerous when the rest of society and its law enforcement arm breaks down. In general they obey their bosses. They would be able to intimidate most folks on image and numbers alone. It doesn't have to be bikers... MS13 or the zetas are more violent, just as organized, better armed and represent a larger threat than the HA or Bandidos. However the HA/Bandidos are very numerous, and each chapter is highly organized, dedicated and mobile.

Just my opinion to worry about them more than large un-organized, barely mobile, unarmed groups of stragglers.

NGH

reliquary · « **Reply #136 on:** October 01, 2011, 12:11:10 PM »

+1 for no guns here.

A lot of my friends and relatives are cops and to them, the inner cities are little better than urban combat zones. As has been stated previuosly, many of the gangs have sent "clean" guys into the service to get combat skills and training and "pilfer" what they can. These groups represent the greatest threats to us in SHTF times.

And, as a retired soldier myself, I know first-hand about the gang infiltration into uniform. Many of them make great soldiers while they're in, but they have ulterior motives. Their skills, training, and experience are the reasons the gangs are so well organized and effective, now. And now they are reaching out into the smaller towns & cities. Almost any town of ~5k population or more has gang problems.

jlwilliams · « **Reply #137 on:** October 01, 2011, 03:12:07 PM »

That is absolutely true. The proliferation of well organised gangs into medium and even small towns is alarming.

They are a problem now, they will be a bigger problem if there is a major incident. If things get to a point where law enforcement is not holding the cork in the bottle, a big ugly genie is coming out.

reliquary · « **Reply #138 on:** October 02, 2011, 11:42:22 AM »

Aside from the threat of well-armed and -organized gangs, the other thing we must be concerned about (at least initially) is the potential for large, unorganized, starving hordes of hungry folks. The closer one lives to main thoroughfares and big cities, the worse this danger is. I don't know how to combat this problem.

In "One Second After", they were conveniently located in a geographical area that lent itself to blocking access. That isn't the case in my area.

We were invaded by the starving hordes from the Gulf Coast in Katrina. They overwhelmed the county/community government's support structure and trashed every place they were housed (think Superdome, but worse).

For the next two storms, the locals posted police at the exits off the main highways and told the evacuees who didn't have family in the area to "Keep moving, there's shelters for you in Arkansas." =) May not work next time. FWIW, folks with apparent medical problems were let in, as well, and taken care of...

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #139 on:** October 03, 2011, 02:48:05 AM »

The truth is all of us will need to be part of a group to survive if we aren't isolated . As for the farmer shooting the 6 bikers , like I said its been told since early 70's and I don't know if its true. I do know for fact that there was a war between the same gang and one in Richmond in the late 70's and it was a blood bath. That and some programs on gang life have convinced many here that if a gang targets you the only hope to survive is to fight and strike first. In a SHTF time many may do just that.

don heath · « **Reply #140 on:** October 03, 2011, 08:35:21 PM »

Shootall...correct. The point is to know when decent folk should take the gloves off. Looking at the farm invasions in my own country, the problem was - when is starting a gun fight a real survival necessity, and when is it just going to land you in jail? A neigbor and a friend died finding out they had called it wrong, but I would have made the same call as them and not started shooting until it was too late.

Also, even well trained and well led groups will not advance into a fire fight- The US military is awsome- but half a dozen skinnies with AK's regularly pin down 3-4 times the force of US troops until the troops get a mk 19 or air/artilery support in. Watch any combat footage Lybia is a prime example. Casualties are in twos and threwes for several hours of 'fighting' between large units. A small tight community will see off even large gangs. Who wants to die? No gang member. Who even wats the risk of injury where there are no hospitals? No gang member. They will prey on the weak until such time as getting shot in the guts seems like a reasonable alternative...

don heath · « **Reply #141 on:** October 03, 2011, 08:39:58 PM »

cont...my biggest problem is being cold and mean to genuine refugees. Starving kids, tearful moms...that hollow eyed, desperate, pleading look. Seen it in too many wars, and it always moves me to give out more than I can afford.

myronman3 · « **Reply #142 on:** October 04, 2011, 05:13:41 AM »

don...that problem is the most overlooked, and is what i think the biggest problem all of us will have when the time comes. i would have a hard time putting food in my mouth when there was a child in front of me starving, and dont know if i could turn them away. i have thought about this alot, and i think the only way to be immune from it would be to be isolated to the point where you did not witness it.
i can not see a man who is right with God turning his back on mothers with starving babies, or children that are dying. judgement day is coming for all of us, and i have enough things to answer for. turning away a starving child so i could extend my stay on earth is something i just dont see myself doing....and i am speaking for myself only. i guess it is a good thing for me that i do not fear death; i am not ready for it, but i dont fear it.
if it wasnt for my faith, i would be scared to death of what lies ahead. i will add that i hope i am wrong.

reliquary · « **Reply #143 on:** October 04, 2011, 04:17:40 PM »

Myronman3:

You're a good man, even a better man than I, and may God bless you. I couldn't turn away starving kids. Nor could my wife. We would take them in and feed them as long as we could, teach them to work the garden/hunt/fish/gather with the rest of the family.

But I could/would give a hungry adult a meal, share with him/her whatever I was having, and tell them to keep moving. I'd even help him/her out with some basic equipment and supplies, if I had enough to go around. But I can't feed everyone, and my family comes first.

blind ear · « **Reply #144 on:** October 04, 2011, 09:33:01 PM »

Don Heath and Myronman3, Quite a thought.

If I could deny those helpless eyes I probably would have to fight my own family to keep them from giving away what we were supposed to protect and ration. ear

Victor3 · « **Reply #145 on:** October 05, 2011, 01:15:30 AM »

Quote from: don heath on October 03, 2011, 08:35:21 PM

A small tight community will see off even large gangs. Who wants to die? No gang member. Who even wats the risk of injury where there are no hospitals? No gang member. They will prey on the weak until such time as getting shot in the guts seems like a reasonable alternative...

That's kind of what I was thinking.

Also, I live in a county with millions of homes and ~40% contain at least one gun (and the remaining 60% on my block could be supplied if need be

). I figure that only a tiny minority of folks will be out raping and pillaging and those who do will be thinned out PDQ as they're opposed by determined defenders.

If everyone knows that there are no authorities around to investigate shootings, the good people in an armed populace will have an advantage over the predators.

"You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass." - Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto (Japanese Navy)

SHOOTALL · « **Reply #146 on:** October 05, 2011, 03:42:43 AM »

Shareing food could mean doom for you and your's . Not sure how I would react . But also consider sickness from same people. Do you risk contact ?

Pat/Rick · « **Reply #147 on:** October 05, 2011, 07:11:59 AM »

Quote from: SHOOTALL on October 05, 2011, 03:42:43 AM

Shareing food could mean doom for you and your's . Not sure how I would react . But also conside sickness from same people. Do you risk contact ?

Tough call. I prep for my families needs, not those of others. My wife is a dedicated health care professional, I remind her of the need to protect herself and her family when we talk of emergency situations. "Poor kids" coming to the door asking for handouts? Even a kid can be taught to gather intell for larger groups. How did 'those' people look? were their clothes clean and in repair? Did they look well fed? Did they have weapons? Could you see any food items looking through the windows? Chances are they will already know if you have a garden, orchard, or livestock.Your neighboors will know about your situation already, and you theirs. Mutual support, trade, and defense should be at least discussed if your neighbors are at all trustworthy. Even if questionable, you should be open to trade with them, be ready to come to their aid if needed, those grateful of aid will possibly give aid. It doesn't mean I wouldn't help others, I would just be very cautious is all. Ask, and we'll see what we can do for ya. Take, and problems will arise most rapidly.

myronman3 · « **Reply #148 on:** October 05, 2011, 06:46:51 PM »

it is a side of the topic that is hard to get your mind around. it is good to think about in advance so that one has had time to think about how you might handle it.

don heath · « **Reply #149 on:** October 05, 2011, 08:34:46 PM »

And always have a supply of tampons and bog roll - you would be amaized what you can trade those things for, and also amaized at how much of a problem it actually is when a woman needs and doesn't have. My worst was a 16hr drive to get a re-supply! - But it was worth it

PS- tampons are not great for plugging bullet holes- have tried it once (on myself) - the new US products like Quick Clot are much better, but it is always a good excuse as to why you have a couple of boxes in your first aid kit