Predictions on reloading supplies

[bulletstuffer]

Hi guys.  It's been about 6 months since the panic began.  Retailers are still out of primers, powder,  almost any type of 22 caliber bullets for reloading and the brass that is available is ridiculously priced for the average shooter. 


Have you checked Midsouth, Midway, Natchez, Cabelas, Bass pro lately?



1) What month and year do you think shelves will be stocked again like the pre panic days?
2) Will prices come back down to December 2012 levels or below?


I think that 2013 will be a bleak year for supplies


Keep your fingers crossed for the Country!


Bulletstuffer

[FPH]

Around here I have seen no relief.  I would say Dec. for supplies that will never come down to pre-panic prices.  Primers are the only components I have seen but at triple the cost of pre-panic levels.

[guzzijohn]

I much as I hate to think people are this stupid, I do not see much relief until Obama is out of office. Once again gun owners need to just look in the mirror to see the how the problem was created.
GuzziJhon

[gypsyman]

I don't think you'll ever see price's back to say, Bush era presidency. You'll never see gas below $2/gal either. Just the way it is. Depending on how bad Obie runs this economy into the ground, you might never see the suppy come back either. More and more people are realizing how far behind the 8 ball this country is, and they'll just keep buying. gypsyman

[Old Syko]

I much as I hate to think people are this stupid, I do not see much relief until Obama is out of office. Once again gun owners need to just look in the mirror to see the how the problem was created.
GuzziJhon

I agree 100% on how the problem was created but you'll find few here who seem to get it.  I'm not so sure there will be much of an improvement even in post obama times though. 


As far as the system rising to meet demand goes, it was never intended to maintain the status quo as we as citizens would desire.  Yet is working just as it was designed to work and achieving the result desired by our keepers.

[Cheesehead]

I finally see 6.8mm and 44 caliber jacketed bullets at Midway. This is new.

Cheese

[pastorp]

Since I was a young man, when I bought a new gun/caliber I also bought or ordered a lifetime supply of ammo or components. 

No problem here. 

[Buckskin]

Since I was a young man, when I bought a new gun/caliber I also bought or ordered a lifetime supply of ammo or components. 

No problem here. 

I'm good too... But I would say this will all settle down by the end of the year. It did last time when obama got in.  Took about a year or better, but it got back to normal.  They are making compontents as fast as they can and there is only so much demand... Although after this scare, there is more demand for guys to stockpile than last time so I make take a bit more time.  But at some point there will be plenty of stuff available.  Estate sales if nothing else. Imagine the deals there!  Most wives have no idea what a pound of powder or a k of primes is worth...

[Empty Quiver]

I much as I hate to think people are this stupid, I do not see much relief until Obama is out of office. Once again gun owners need to just look in the mirror to see the how the problem was created.
GuzziJhon

.
Ok, why do you think this, and how come the capital market system hasn't risen to meet demand conditions like its suppose?  Not a poke at you , just wondering why the system isn't working as we're told its suppose to.
.
.
..TM7




Demand has out paced the supply line. Suppliers have years and years of demand history. They have a capacity that is able to meet that demand, but not a 2X demand. The problem has become do you expand facilities for what can be assumed a short time shortage?  I don't know about everyone but I would like to be sitting on several years supply right now, if my desires are average and I think they probably are, where would that leave an ammo maker once my demand is met?


Lets say I find that magic number of .223 in stock that lets me stop wondering. I will go back to shooting the same 4 - 600 rounds per year I have always shot, I figure the same for everybody else, too.


It seems Remington has decided to expand. It will be too late to change this supply problem, I hope. This is no different than Tickle me Elmo dolls, Cabbage Patch dolls and all the other Christmas time one hit wonders.

[jhm]

     All of the shortages and high prices have had a impact on my general PLAY shooting, I am not in a panick mode but I am concerned about the near future supply of shooting componets, I do believe we someday will see a govt. sale of excess ammo that they have stock piled that they dont need as we have taken the govt. BACK!!  Jim

[Old Syko]

I'm good too... But I would say this will all settle down by the end of the year. It did last time when obama got in.  Took about a year or better, but it got back to normal. 

Not at all true.  Pre obama I was buying surplus 5.56 for 10 and 12 cents ea. and could buy by the truck load if I so chose.  Once it got back to "normal" 35 to 40 cents ea. was the deal and orders were limited.  Right now the surplus is gone, never to return with the cutbacks at Lake City and other lesser known manufacturers around the world.  If you're allowed to purchase anything at all right now, it's approaching $1 a round and those who are willing to pay whatever it takes are destroying the economy for the rest.  Personally, I'm covered for my lifetime and have tried to help out the kids and grandkids and I haven't bought much of anything since the beginning of the obama years.  I'm not the problem.

[guzzijohn]

Possibly the reasons mfgs. have not kept up with demand is that they too think this demand will end at some point when either the paranoia subsides or people finally run out of money to keep up this level of ammo buying, then with everyone in surplus there will be little buying. They don't want to spend millions to expand facilities just to have to shut them back down in just a few years or less.
Guzzi Joihn

[Anna]

I wish I could find some 38/357. They tell me that is one of the harder calibers to come by now.
And anything that has S&W stamped on it is through the roof on what they are asking for them.
Forget the Colt Python you can buy a good used car for what they are asking for them.
Arms corps is importing that Colt knock off called a model 200, its a Colt Anaconda 38 like a lot
of the Taurus guns resemble a S&W. And the 200 is supposed to retail for around $300.00.

But dealers are getting $600.00 for them and selling out of them even at that price.
Shady dealers are calling it a Philippine made Colt but the truth is Colt had nothing to do
with that. And to me a Taurus is no S&W not by a long shot and they just had a big recall on their
locking system on their guns locking up alright, locking down is more like it.
Why the big interest in a 357 revolver in the age of the automatic? On Facebook if you go to the
walking dead I still say its because of the Python being used in that popular series.
Other people agree, its said that series did for the Python what Dirty Harry did for the model 29.
JMO, Colt would be wise to cash in on this demand and reintroduce the Python.

A dealer told me that request for any 357 are as big as they are for any 1911. Not just any revolver
a 357 but the model 19 and the 27 are what people are wanting the most of right now.
I saw a NIB S&W model 27 sell for $1,600.00 Colts are priced out of reality. But the SAA in 357 is
also holding its own mostly with the Vaquero Ruger .
Personally I have a model 25 in 45lc and a couple of other S&W revolvers and I would take a S&W
 any day over a Colt. 




 

[ChungDoQuan]

I'm good on brass and bullets, and mostly good on powder. I do .38 and .357, plus .30-30 and .30-06. I'm weathering all this mostly by shooting black powder and air guns.

[Sourdough]

I have gone to the web sites of several ammo makers.  They all feel this is a short lived shortage.  So they are not investing in any new facilities at this time.  I think the last shortage used up all the import supplies left over from the cold war and other small wars.  So now we are stuck with what we got.  I do know that after this scare, if it ends I am stocking up on primers.  I have plenty of bullets, and powder, but got caught short on primers.

[Ranger99]

i haven't been caught short per se,
but i'm hesitant to use what i have
for any practice or what little load
development i have to do.


the big problem of course is the
unlicensed re-sellers that put the
unrealistic prices on their items and
the folks that turn around and pay it.

[two-blocked]

I've been simplifying and cutting down on the calibers I reload. Now is the time to sell any reloading dies you have on ebay. It's crazy but people are paying more than I did for the dies when new.   

[Anna]

I'm good on brass and bullets, and mostly good on powder. I do .38 and .357, plus .30-30 and .30-06. I'm weathering all this mostly by shooting black powder and air guns.

CDQ, what kind of air rifle do you have? Mines a German built Beeman in 5mm.
A real tack diver and its great for small vermin or game critters.
About a 100 yard effectiveness after that it loses its punch.

[Anna]

I have gone to the web sites of several ammo makers.  They all feel this is a short lived shortage.  So they are not investing in any new facilities at this time.  I think the last shortage used up all the import supplies left over from the cold war and other small wars.  So now we are stuck with what we got.  I do know that after this scare, if it ends I am stocking up on primers.  I have plenty of bullets, and powder, but got caught short on primers.

I would be willing to swap some primers for some 357 bullets. Primers I have I stocked up right after
the primer panic back in the 1990s.

[Graybeard]

Prices will never go back to what they were last year. They will eventually go down from the prices some are now charging but they will not again go to 2012 prices.


I don't see the shortages going away this year at all. Those few internet retailers that list expected ship dates to them have now moved it out to the last quarter and are even saying that's uncertain. I will be surprised if normal supply channels have stock a year from now.

Personally I just don't believe the cause is folks hoarding nor scalpers buying it all up to resell at higher prices. If that were so some of the online retailers would be getting shipments and I see no indication that is happening. So far as I know the rimfire manufacturers do nothing else at that facility and they can make billions of them a year. So where is the rimfire ammo?

[Anna]

I agree, I can believe some of the raw materials story's but not as a whole in the market place.
Especilly with the rim fire that is produced in a lot of other country's besides just here.
Prices on guns are coming down but ammo is still a no show.

[reliquary]

At our local gun stores in East Texas...this includes Bass Pro Shops, Academy, Gander Mountain as well as the small local shops...supplies "trickle" in.  The shelves are bare of common calibers of dies, and at the largest store, they sell what primers they get in boxes rather than bricks.  Bass Pro had some powder a while back but was wanting $30 for a pound of Unique. 
 
I stocked up on most everything in the middle of 2012, remembering what happened in 2008, but have drastically cut back on my recreational shooting, and am just "holding" for now.
 
All of them say they are unable to get .22LR.  The local W-M gets some off-brand .223 and  occasionally, and .45 ball in Federal & Winchester about once every 2-3 weeks; a little Tulammo in 9, 7.62x39,  and .45 comes in almost every week.

[Anna]

22lr is the hardest that was hit. Maybe they know it can be used to feed ones family instead of
relying on the Guberment. Its a fairly versatile round there are semi autos out there that can really
lay some 22s down if need be. And it is very accurate at long distances.
It may not always kill but it will sure mess up your day if placed in the right spots.

[ChungDoQuan]

I'm good on brass and bullets, and mostly good on powder. I do .38 and .357, plus .30-30 and .30-06. I'm weathering all this mostly by shooting black powder and air guns.

CDQ, what kind of air rifle do you have? Mines a German built Beeman in 5mm.
A real tack diver and its great for small vermin or game critters.
About a 100 yard effectiveness after that it loses its punch.

100 yards is great for an air rifle! My best one is a Browning Leverage in .22, but MY max is probably 70 yards or so. It's deadly on rabbits, squirrels and such. I've also got a Brazilian Winchester/Daisy 1000 in .177. I got lucky with that one--- the trigger doesn't suck. I've also got a couple of old Chinese B3s, a .22 and a .177. Those were $20 guns about 30 years ago. I "tuned" the .177 last winter, so now it's actually a pretty nice shooter--- I'm going to give it to my stepson, I think.

[Sourdough]

Bill:  I've been wondering the same thing.  22s are what is scarce the most.  And 22s are made in the highest numbers.  Where is the .22LRs going?  They are not coming in to get horded by anyone.  All the rimfire makers, CCI, Winchester, Remington, all claim to be running three shifts, producing at full capacity.  That's a heck of a lot of ammo.  Where is it all going?

The suppliers up here just can't get any .22s.  Sportsman's and Wal-Mart are the only ones getting 22s.  Sportsman's might get in five bricks, once a month.  Wal-Mart got in 10 small 100 round boxes yesterday.  They were gone within an hour.  With a limit of one box per customer.  Both of those stores go through several thousands of rounds a week under normal conditions.  (The people in Alaska like to shoot, most kids will go through a brick a week.  Sky and Eric would shoot up one to two bricks a weekend)  When Sportsman's shipments come in on Tuesdays, there is a line waiting to see if they got any ammo, primers, or powder.   Frontier Outfitters got powder in Wednesday, and they still have some (about a third of it) on the shelves.  People are telling them they have powder, they need primers.  Sportsman's got powder in last Tuesday.  It took three days for the small amount of powder to sell out.  They have bullets, brass, and dies, setting on the shelves, just no primers.  They have lots of everything including some ammo.  Whats missing is 22s, .223s, 243s, 30-06s, 25-06s, .357s, and .38s.  They have all the Weatherby ammo, the Super Short stuff, 375 H&H, 9MM, 45-70, 460 Smith, 454 Casull, .40s and loads of .41 Mag.  I don't need any of that stuff, I have enough for my needs.  .17 Hornets are on the shelf, along with lots of .17HMRs.  Everybody has .17 HMRs, .22 shorts, and some have .22 Mag.   

I need 22LR, and 25-06.  At least we got the right ammo for Bear Protection, and lots of shotgun shells for birds.

[kennyd]

Around Aurora, WM gets in a few .243, just got in a case of 9, .40, and 7.62x39.  I missed on the .22's last time in by about an hour.  Yesterday they had a whole bunch of 12 ga. 00 buck (9pellets).  I didn't look at the price, but is has been around $6. for 5.


Without primers, which I have enough of, the bullets and powder are of little use.  As for buying a lifetime supply, I can't afford to buy 500 to 1000 bullets at a time when I get a new caliber.  I won't get anything new right now anyway because there is no ammo. (or money)


As for .357's, you can not worry about a learning curve on use of a revolver, don't have to worry about compressed springs, and there are no stovepipes.  You are limited to 5 to 7 rounds.  A Ruger Security 6 is my usual take along when going on a drive to the mountains, with one speed loader, and one box.  I have never needed it, and seldom have even thought I might.  Probably the same for the rest uf you.  The other take along at times is a .22 of some sort.

[Buckskin]

Lack of 22lr I think is a pretty easy one.   They are the most common caliber in America, everyone has one, some have many.  The 22lr AR has become a very popular weapon, much cheaper to shoot than the 223 AR, and they eat a lot of ammo quick!  Everyone who has a gun has felt this shortage, which was not true with the last one.  223, pistol rounds and reloading components were hit the hardest last time, so the average gun owner really didn't notice that much. So everyone has the thought that they won't be caught in this mess again so they are buying when available.  Most people can easily afford to buy several thousand rounds of 22lr, so when they are available they go quickly.  I know a lot of people who rarely shoot who are looking to stockpile 22lr.
 
 
I was at Wally World the other day and they had 5- 1600 round dry boxes of CCI for $105 on the shelf.  I didn't need any (although I thought about it...) so I called a buddy to see if he wanted me to pick some up for him.  By the time he called me back there were only 2 left.  I picked up a S&W 15/22 last fall and decided it was going to be hungry and started buying ammo for it, finished a good supply just as everything tightened up.  If I could only hit the stock market like that.....

[Ranger99]

if one were to drop by, for instance, the
local academy store here, you can see the men
lined up to get in upon opening and the rush
to buy up the .22 lr and .223 and .308, etc.
they do get it in and it gets snapped up.
there is a photo on another site with this same
topic of folks lined up before opening to
grab up ammo.

[Sourdough]

Frontier Outfitters got in .223s today.  Some powder (about 20 lbs) and some pistol ammo.  No primers or .22LRs.  Fred Meyer and Wal-Mart had no ammo in their shipments. 

Sportsman's Warehouse got primers, about 60 boxes, 30 boxes each of 1000, in both small and large rifle.  Ni pistol primers.  I bought a box of each, I am out of Large rifle primers.  They got in .22LR, don't know how much, but the line formed as soon as they said they were listed on the shipping documents.  A friend that works there said they only got a three days supply under normal conditions.  It will be two weeks before they get any more in.  He said when they carry it up front it will be gone in 20 minutes.  Limit one 100 round box per customer.

[facetious]

This whole thing is getting to be like when every one was going nuts for Beani Baby's . Thy didn't know what thy were going to do with them, but if every ones getting as many of them as thy could then thy figured thy should too. I work with a guy like that. He gets a new Black Hawk in .44mag and then gets a Rossi Ranch Hand to go with it and orders a case of ammo to go with it. I asked what he was going to do with them, all he says is "I don't know just got them because I could". Last week he told me that some one he knew ordered a 10-22 take down so told him to have them order one for him too. Just wanted it. Said it would be good to keep in his truck. How much of all this shooting stuff is being stock piled by people who don't know what thy are going to use it all for? Thy are getting it just because thy hear that every one else is.