Stopped looking for work??

[rio grande]

When the media talks about unemployment, they always say the statistics don't include those people who have "stopped looking for work".  "Discouraged workers".
How do THEY know if someone has 'stopped looking for work'?  How does the government know?
Don't they mean, 'the unemployment payments have run out'?
If I'm looking for work, the LAST place I go is to the State unemployment office.
So how do they know? 

I'm just wondering.  I know there are bums and deadbeats out there, and I know there are people trying to find work. I don't want to get into that!

Anybody know? Am I missing something?

[Questor]

That's a good point. I had a job once for a company that went out of business. I was entitled to unemployment checks. I went to the office and looked around and it really repulsed me. I left and never collected a check. I just went and found a job. But lots of people take it as a windfall. A good friend of mine lost his job when his company downsized. He has no intention of finding another job. He is taking classes and only goes to "nuisance interviews" to keep his benefits coming.

[torpedoman]

Read this info as. They keep extending the benefits so I'm milking it for all it is worth, I can sleep in and with no travel expense to and from work no need to eat at work no child care expense i'm making more staying at home than i was working so I'm  not looking very hard and won't take a job even if i find one.

[mirage1988]

Torpedoman-
 The last interview I had was for a laminator (making desktops, mainly for the medical industry.) When the white manager brought me down to the woodshop there were two black guys and a mexican in the shop. A week later, (after an e-mail and a phone call) the manager called me back to tell me they found someone "who fit in better" to their company. I darn near bit my tongue in half because I really wanted to ask him if he only called me in for an interview bacause my name is marcus.

[rio grande]

I know there are bums and cheaters.
Can anyone answer the questions -
How do THEY ( the media and government) know if someone has 'stopped looking for work'?  How does the government know?
Don't they mean, 'the unemployment payments have run out'?

[Cabin4]

Unemployment (10%) plus those that have stopped looking for work is in the 18% range.

[rio grande]

Unemployment (10%) plus those that have stopped looking for work is in the 18% range.

How is it known they have 'stopped looking for work'?
That seems to be just a misleading euphemism.

[45-70.gov]

they  only  want  to  count  those dependent  on  them

like  those   getting  a check from  the  government

those  begging a job  from the government

you  self suficient  folks  are  irrelavent  to  them  and are  not counted

if  you  want  to be  counted  get  on the  dole

most  likely  once  you start  working  the want a peice  of  you  check

[mirage1988]

I used to be a cabinetmaker and almost all (95%) of the guys I know in the construction trades are laid off right now. Those that have quit collecting unemployment are those that have either - ran out of benefits, or are delivering pizzas because they were ready to give up.

[rio grande]

Doing some research, I think I see the answer...the Department of Labor simply "estimates" the percentages based on polling data. Then it feeds the info to the media.  This is from the 'Bureau of Labor Statistics'....

"As mentioned previously, the labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as "not in the labor force." Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force.

A series of questions is asked each month of persons not in the labor force to obtain information about their desire for work, the reasons why they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks, their prior job search, and their availability for work. These questions include:

Do you currently want a job, either full or part time?
What is the main reason you were not looking for work during the LAST 4 WEEKS?
Did you look for work at any time during the last 12 months?
LAST WEEK, could you have started a job if one had been offered?
These questions form the basis for estimating the number of persons....."

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#nilf

A poll!  Have any of you, or your friends, ever been polled by the 'Bureau of Labor Statistics'?
I sure haven't.
And, of course, you can trust the Government, and their pollsters, to tell us 'the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth".  

[Graybeard]

Let's see now the last time I remember being polled was......wait a minute I'm thinking.......no it was......wait a dang minute I'm still thinking........Ok truth is I don't recall ever being asked. 

[rio grande]

Let's see now the last time I remember being polled was......wait a minute I'm thinking.......no it was......wait a dang minute I'm still thinking........Ok truth is I don't recall ever being asked.  

I don't think those government boys know any more about how many people are unemployed than they do about how to actually work for a living.
Who knows what the unemployment rate really is, and it's sooo convenient for them to say "those are just people who 'stopped looking for work'.
My wife has been looking for work for a long time, nobody from the goverment has asked her anything, she's not on unemployment, I guess she's one of those 'stopped looking for work' people too.
Now, if she spoke Spanish....
You know, I'd just like to hear from ONE PERSON here who has been polled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

[Sweetwater]

Let's see now the last time I remember being polled was......wait a minute I'm thinking.......no it was......wait a dang minute I'm still thinking........Ok truth is I don't recall ever being asked.  

I don't think those government boys know any more about how many people are unemployed than they do about how to actually work for a living.
Who knows what the unemployment rate really is, and it's sooo convenient for them to say "those are just people who 'stopped looking for work'.
My wife has been looking for work for a long time, nobody from the goverment has asked her anything, she's not on unemployment, I guess she's one of those 'stopped looking for work' people too.
Now, if she spoke Spanish....
You know, I'd just like to hear from ONE PERSON here who has been polled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Wasn't me..

Regards,
Sweetwater

[Redtail1949]

they do not know..they just guess

[slim rem 7]

 well a man that won t look for food money ,,probably falls into the category of thief ..sooner or later...
 if a mans physically able... i don t see not trying to get his basic needs.. now if hes got family to support,,he may have let depession whip him..
im a believer ,,that you not whipped until you say you are whipped..sometimes gods using that time to bring you into the fold..slim
 he learns he never was standing strong ,without the help of the father..just lifes learning process..
my oldest is a millionaire.. his achievements make me proud.. but he s turned from the father ,,it seems anyway..you never know whats in a mans mind...anyway ,,as far as my prayers go ,,i want him back in the ranks of believer ..no matter what the father has to do.. to bring him in..slim
 wayne if you read this.. know your father loves you and would if i could spare you the grief that i just spoke of..you a heck of a man son..

[Questor]

Graybeard:

I clearly remember the last several times someone attempted to poll me. I always tell them I will not participate and hang up as soon as possible. That's if they identify themselves as a pollster immediately. If it's just somebody that sounds like a telemarketer I don't hang up. I set the handset down and wait for the tone that says there's nobody on the line. If they're going to call me and waste my time, I'll waste theirs too.

[Black Eagle]

rio grande, that is a very good question and I am sure that nobody knows the real answers. I suspect that they get some stats from the IRS and others from the census bureau but I don't know that for sure.

[alsaqr]

Sounds like it is a lot of guess work and voo-doo science.  Outsiders have been saying for years that the real unemployment figures are grossly understated. 

[Heather]

Unemployment (10%) plus those that have stopped looking for work is in the 18% range.

How is it known they have 'stopped looking for work'?
That seems to be just a misleading euphemism.

It is my understanding that the those who "stopped looking for work" were receiving unemployment benefits.  Those benefits have since ran out and they still don't' have employment. So instead of saying counting those who can't find work they classify them as stopped looking for work...sounds better to them I imagine.

Heather

[Heavy C]

they do not know..they just guess

That's what I was going to say.  I was laid off March of 2008.  Poked around a bit, but couldn't really find anything.  I couldn't bring myself to apply for unemployment benefits.  So I started my own business.  No one has ever asked me squat.  I just go about my business and take care of my family.

[rio grande]

Unemployment (10%) plus those that have stopped looking for work is in the 18% range.

How is it known they have 'stopped looking for work'?
That seems to be just a misleading euphemism.

It is my understanding that the those who "stopped looking for work" were receiving unemployment benefits.  Those benefits have since ran out and they still don't' have employment. So instead of saying counting those who can't find work they classify them as stopped looking for work...sounds better to them I imagine.

Heather

That's what I thought at first,  then found how they really go about 'estimating' the number of persons they say 'stopped looking for work'.
By removing people from the official 'labor force' they can easily mask the high level of unemployment.
Not that they really know anyway, since it's all just based on polling data, a poll of a VERY small number of people.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics are misleading and really just smoke and mirrors.

[MGMorden]

Just a shot in the dark guess but they may be looking at the percentage of people utilizing job services.

Or they could be doing polls/surveys.  Basic statistics says that a sufficiently large random sample will almost always reflect the same properties as it's larger parent group. 

So if you have a state with a couple million people, if you call 2000 *RANDOM* people (has to be absolutely random or it doesn't work out), and 10% say they are unemployed, and 5% say that they have stopped working, then you can infer the same percentages for the whole group.  It works better the larger your sample size, but as long as you stay truly random it doesn't take too large of a group before you start getting good numbers.

[rio grande]

Just a shot in the dark guess but they may be looking at the percentage of people utilizing job services.

Or they could be doing polls/surveys.  Basic statistics says that a sufficiently large random sample will almost always reflect the same properties as it's larger parent group.  

So if you have a state with a couple million people, if you call 2000 *RANDOM* people (has to be absolutely random or it doesn't work out), and 10% say they are unemployed, and 5% say that they have stopped working, then you can infer the same percentages for the whole group.  It works better the larger your sample size, but as long as you stay truly random it doesn't take too large of a group before you start getting good numbers.

It's surveys all right, Bureau of Labor Statistics says so.
I'm no statistician.  But the process seems very liable to manipulation.
The more non-working people they remove from the labor force by labeling them 'discouraged workers' who 'gave up looking for work', the lower the unemployment rate they report.
There is no way of knowing for sure, for example, whether my wife who IS trying to find a job is counted among the 'labor force' or NOT.  The unemployment rate reported seems imaginary, just made up. Smoke and Mirrors.
Remember, the 'official' unemployment statistics are from the same people who can't seem to find  millions of illegal workers or prevent them from taking jobs.

[Sweetwater]

Yup, you can make statistics say anything you really want them to, simply by changing your percent of confidence in the set of numbers. What might have been an outlier at say 98% might be right in there at 95%, or some such scenario..

Regards,
Sweetwater

[45-70.gov]

they do not know..they just guess

That's what I was going to say.  I was laid off March of 2008.  Poked around a bit, but couldn't really find anything.  I couldn't bring myself to apply for unemployment benefits.  So I started my own business.  No one has ever asked me squat.  I just go about my business and take care of my family.

this  is  a fine  example  of  ''out dated  american  thinking''

who  needs  government  bail outs  with  folks  like  you  running around

[Sweetwater]

they do not know..they just guess

That's what I was going to say.  I was laid off March of 2008.  Poked around a bit, but couldn't really find anything.  I couldn't bring myself to apply for unemployment benefits.  So I started my own business.  No one has ever asked me squat.  I just go about my business and take care of my family.

this  is  a fine  example  of  ''out dated  american  thinking''

who  needs  government  bail outs  with  folks  like  you  running around

Stuff like this will give "being American" a bad name.....
Uh, cowboy-up and take your stimulus like a man? 

Regards,
Sweetwater

[Heavy C]

they do not know..they just guess

That's what I was going to say.  I was laid off March of 2008.  Poked around a bit, but couldn't really find anything.  I couldn't bring myself to apply for unemployment benefits.  So I started my own business.  No one has ever asked me squat.  I just go about my business and take care of my family.

this  is  a fine  example  of  ''out dated  american  thinking''

who  needs  government  bail outs  with  folks  like  you  running around

Stuff like this will give "being American" a bad name.....
Uh, cowboy-up and take your stimulus like a man?  

Regards,
Sweetwater

Okay, so I'm outdated and un-American?  So be it!  You guys crack me up.  

[Sweetwater]

Heavy C-

I like to think you are in good company there, Making it happen!

Regards,
Sweetwater

[teamnelson]

Served chow on Christmas at a local soup kitchen down town. Probably 1/2 I'd say of the folks that came in were unemployed contruction workers. Group of guys came in and they'd come to Hawaii from Alaska following the promise of a job, but the development was squashed by local cultural protest. So they're stuck on this island, ready willing and able to work, but no money for a ticket to the mainland and don't qualify for unemployment. I don't think they've stopped looking for work actually, but that's the category they'd fall under.

One guy in there was my age with his teenage boy; they had carry-on bags and were dressed nice. He gambled on an interview and bought one-way tickets, but they did a local hire. Bad decision in retrospect, but good initiative. No jobs back home, and turns out no jobs here, and its mighty tough to land a good interview when you live in a beach park.

[magooch]

Who knows how it is determined that a person is not looking for work?  What fascinates me is that our local paper is full of employment ads and the radio stations announce job offers from the state department of employment all the time.  There are even radio commercials where companies are looking for workers.  Now either these outfits are wasting their money, or they're being very, very selective about hiring.  It also amazes me that illegal Mexicans come up here and seem to find work right away, while the unemployment lines grow longer all the time.

It's also interesting that people are bailing out of the place where I retired from as quickly as they can at age 55 and they take quite a penalty on their pensions.  I guess I can't blame them, because I retired early myself, but these people are leaving some of the best paying jobs in the region.