I'd venture to say the first shot is off from the barrel being cold, and possibly not fouled enough.
Knowing where your CBS goes is troublesome to some, sounds to me like you already know where it hits

There will a POI difference in a cleaned barrel cold bore shot, and a fouled barrel cbs. Its important to know where both hit for hunting purposes, expecially when you going for groundhogs at 1/2 a mile

**2 many go overboard when it comes to cleaning barrels. I know some guys who dont lose accuracy until shot #140. My VLS and others get more accurate after 40 rounds or so. -I wont clean until accuracy drops off-
---Ignore the above rambling if you were already aware of what was typed---